They warn a moderate left with Lula in the face of polarization and crisis in Brazil

The new government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will not be the same as his administrations in 2002 and 2006. Experts point out that the president will have to seek balance, a flexible economic policy and turn towards a moderate progressive left.

On January 1, the leader of the Workers’ Party will assume command of a divided and highly polarized country.

International analyst Francisco Xavier Solares points out that Brazil is coming off a decade that he calls one of loss, since there was a setback in economic and social issues and the coronavirus pandemic was the end point.

Lula returns to power positioned, according to Solares, in a more progressive left and not only with the influence of 21st century socialism.

It will return to the welfare policy and where the State will be the main promoter of economic development through public investment. “The characteristics are of a leftist government, but of a left that seeks to recover the institutional framework and give the lower classes a better position,” he assured.

He will continue betting on Petrobras as the main company that will provide resources for social investment, but Lula will face a scenario of strong opposition in Congress. “He is going to have to negotiate with many deputies from the center right and independent parties, but even so it will be difficult for him to achieve a majority and in the streets he will have a strong resistance. It will be an unstable government,” he warned.

It will also bet on greater integration with the region and countries like Argentina, where there will be alliances in the energy field, since Bolivia is no longer its main gas supplier.

In any case, for Bolivia Lula’s coming to power represents, he said, an economic reprieve because the Luis Arce government will be able to obtain loans and have strong political support and maintain the discourse of “coup” and not fraud.

The journalist and analyst Hugo Moldiz expressed the opinion that the conditions in which Lula assumes this new mandate are more adverse. This is because at the international level the same level of intensity does not exist as there has been since 1999, when Hugo Chávez came to govern Venezuela and when other progressive leftist governments succeeded him with different degrees of radicalism. These conditions do not exist despite the failure of the imperial counteroffensive, which did not give the expected results and alter the predominance of leftist governments in the region. “He is going to have a congress against him, which is a problem for any government, and Bolsonaro will be the most important opponent, with a very high risk of facing impeachment, as happened to Dilma Roussef,” Moldiz warned.

Given the advance of a right-wing project of a “fascistic” nature, he indicated that Lula will be forced to achieve many balances that will translate into a fairly flexible economic policy.

On the one hand, condescension towards large companies, many with international capital, but at the same time meeting social demands. “Internationally, Lula is going to play an important role in regional integration. Part of its agenda will continue to be the elimination of hunger and I don’t see it as very complicated because it will have a balance with the strong Brazilian bourgeoisie, mainly from São Paulo, which aligned itself with Bolsonaro, but which may end up generating points of contact with Lula”, he pointed out. .

Center Search

An analysis by Deutsche Welle considers that, with Lula, in Brazil the search for the center won.

The victory of this leader does not mean that a new “pink tide” of leftist governments is emerging, like the one that took place two decades ago. “What happened, and what needs to be highlighted, is that, once again, he won the opposition,” says Marcos Novaro, a political analyst from Argentina.

He highlights that in order to win “Lula did what he has always done: he sought the center of the political spectrum, in an alliance that is quite firm, that will condition his management. Something that Kirchnerism, for example, never did, that is, take seriously that turn towards moderation, that negotiation with the center of politics.

“Of the times that the leaders of the left have had to be in power, this is going to be the most difficult. The economy will not grow or will grow very little in 2023, the needs are very great,” Patricio Navia, professor of liberal studies at New York University, warns EFE. “I don’t see it as a turn to the left. , but as a discontent with authorities, which will replicate with new rulers if they do not deliver solutions”, he maintains.

The former director of Human Rights Watch, José Vivanco, believes that Lula or Gabriel Boric could very well be replaced tomorrow by a government of an opposing ideological color to the extent that people feel that campaign promises have not been fulfilled.

They warn a moderate left with Lula in the face of polarization and crisis in Brazil