The United States adjusts stocks of soybeans and corn: an opportunity for Brazil and Argentina?

In USA a tighter harvest is expected corn Y soya situation that according to the Bag of Cereals of Córdoba (BCCBA) will revalue the production of coarse South American grains.

In this context, although international organizations anticipate a greater volume of coarse grains in Argentina Y Brazilthere is uncertainty about the impact that the weather may have on the campaign.

North American corn production comes to an end with 54% of the crop presenting a condition between good and excellent, a 10% below the average of the last decade. Although production totaled 800,000 tons and will reach 353.8 million tonsthis volume is located 3% below the yields of the last five campaigns.

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“The change stems from a slight increase in productivity that would reach 108.2 qq/ha, although lower than last season’s, which was 110.9 qq/ha,” they pointed out from the Cordovan stock market. With these yields, the final stocks of the cereal in USA they will remain at 30 million tons, the minimum in ten years.

In South America, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) anticipated a record 55 million tons for Argentina, of which 41 million tons will be exported. “This may be optimistic considering the drought that the country is going through, however, late planting is about to start and it can happen if the temperature and rainfall are favourable,” they highlighted.

by the side of Brazilthe estimate of USDA forecasts around 126 million tons for the 2022/23 campaign, also a record.

In this country, although the corn primera is being planted at a lower rate than last season, an increase in area planted is expected in most areas, mainly in the most productive ones such as Mato Grosso, goias Y Mato Grosso do Sul.

WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE SOY?

Brazil exceeds United Statesos in soybean production projections, and according to data from the National Supply Company (Conab), the soybean planted area in the neighboring country would grow by 4.2% compared to the previous cycle and productivity will be 35.5 qq/ha, an improvement of 17.3% in relation to last year.

With these values ​​and a 57.5% advance in the planted area, they anticipated a record production of 153.5 million tons22.3% above the previous cycle. Of the harvest, it is estimated that they will export 96.6 million tons, a figure that is equivalent to 62.9% of the soybean campaign.

“This higher level of exports would be due to an increase in the available supply and the reduction in exports of USAwhere China seeks to diversify imports so as not to depend on the North American country, ”they explained from the Cordoba stock market.

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In USA, the USDA estimated production at 118.3 million tons. Compared to the previous season, this harvest volume represents a drop of 3.2 million tons.

In Argentina, the Ministry of Agriculture anticipated a complex scenario for the crop. The planting intention is 16.3 million hectares, which represents 400,000 hectares less than the average of 5 campaigns. With a drought that for the moment delays planting, the USDA was optimistic and projected a harvest of 49.5 million tons, which compared to last year will increase by 3.3 million tons.



The United States adjusts stocks of soybeans and corn: an opportunity for Brazil and Argentina?