Mexico has just a 0.2 percent chance of winning Qatar 2022, while the United States has a 0.6 percent chance of winning the title, according to a study published by the University of Innsbruck.
MEXICO — USA is more likely than Mexico to be world champion in Qatar 2022while the Brazil’s selection It is the wide favorite to stay with the World Cup, the last one that will have 32 national teams.
According to a study published by the University of InnsbruckAustria, and carried out by Andreas Groll, Neele Hormann, Christophe Ley, Gunther Schauberger, Hans Van Eetvelde, Achim Zeileis, predicted the probabilities that each of the teams has to win the world Cup.
Achim Zeileis He is head of the Department of Statistics of the Faculty of Economics and Statistics of the University of Innsbruck and under a formula and a complex method, which takes into account historical information, the expectation, as well as the present, was how they reached this conclusion.
Mexico you have a mere 0.2 percent chance of winning Qatar 2022while USA he has a 0.6 percent chance of winning the title. Meanwhile, Brazil is the great favorite with 15 percent, followed by Argentina that has 11.2 percent to win the championship.
Of the 32 selections, Mexico is the 20th selection in terms of the favorites list, while USA It is the 17th, I feel the best located of the Concacaf. For its part, Canada is in the 29th place and Costa Rica in the 30th.
For their part, the rivals of the Mexico group, Argentina is the one with the best position in terms of study, followed by Polandwith a 1.0 percent chance of winning the contest and is in 14th place, and Saudi Arabia It is the least favorite selection, occupying the 32nd place with 0.0 percent.
“Forecasting is based on conditional inference random forest learning that combines information that captures the past, present, and future of the soccer teams in which they compete: knowledge of the past, where captured in an estimate of ability for each team based on historical matches.
“Expectations about the future in the next tournament are captured in an estimate of the capacity of each team based on the odds of international bookmakers. The current state of the teams (and their countries) is represented by covariates such as market value or the types of players in the team, as well as country-specific socioeconomic factors such as population or GDP. document.
For this study, they took into account the five tournaments of the FIFA World Cup from 2002 to 2018 as training data and then applied to current information to obtain a forecast for the World Cup.
The first 10 places are: