The statistical model suggests that the South American giants will surpass their European competitors in the world’s most famous football competition
Gracenote, a Nielsen company, today released its predictions for the FIFA World Cup 2022, which indicate Brazil and Argentina as the two favorite teams to win in Qatar. Gracenote uses a proprietary football classification system to estimate the probabilities of different outcomes for each 2022 World Cup match through extensive simulations, assessing each team’s chances of reaching different stages of the tournament. During the tournament, predictions will be updated daily in the Nielsen World Cup Data Hub:
The following evidence emerges from the analysis:
According to Gracenote, Brazil are the favorites to win the 2022 World Cup, with a 20% chance of lifting the cup in the final on 18 December. Brazil sit atop the Gracenote World Soccer Rankings, losing just three games in 50 matches following their 2018 World Cup elimination by Belgium.
Argentina have a 16% chance of becoming the team’s world champions for the first time since 1986. Following their defeat by France in the 2018 World Cup, Argentina suffered four defeats, but the team is now unbeaten for more than three years, since the match ended 2-0 for Brazil in July 2019.
If both the national teams of Brazil and Argentina win in their respective groups, they would advance to the knockout stage in the same half of the draw and meet in the semi-finals. Despite this, according to Gracenote simulations, the World Cup final between Brazil and Argentina is currently the match most likely to be played on December 18.
The main European contenders for this edition’s trophy are Spain and the Netherlands, both with a 7% chance of winning, and Belgium with 6%. According to Gracenote projections, reigning world champions France follow with a 5% chance of repeating themselves.
The 16 teams most likely to qualify for the 2022 World Cup knockout matches are Argentina, Brazil, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Belgium, France, Uruguay, Denmark, England, Germany, Switzerland, Ecuador, Croatia, RI Iran and Mexico.
Morocco are the African team most likely to reach the knockout stages, but start the tournament as third favorites in Group F, behind 2018 semi-finalists Belgium and finalists Croatia.
Simon Gleave, Head of Analysis at Gracenote Sports, said: “Based on their performances in international football since the last World Cup, Gracenote predicts that in the upcoming competition Brazil and Argentina will continue to outperform their opponents. four years no other team has had the same consistency as the two South American giants, thus suggesting a good chance of victory for one of the two in front of fans from all over the world”.
Gracenote World Soccer Ranking
Gracenote Sports developed its first proprietary soccer-related ranking in 2002. The entire methodology is based on the Elo system, used to rank chess players, which has been refined over the past 16 years. Whenever two teams play each other, one team “wins” points from the other based on the result, margin of victory, home players, and relative strength of the two teams. The transfer of points from one team to another is also weighted according to the importance of the competition, so the World Cup and the continental championships are given greater importance, while friendlies a lower one.
For example, if top-ranked Brazil wins a friendly match on neutral ground against 30th-placed Costa Rica by a score of 1-0, Brazil would improve its rating by relatively few points, as this result is more or less expected. However, if Germany beat Brazil 7-1 at the FIFA World Cup in Brazil, Germany’s rating would improve significantly at the expense of Brazil’s, as both are strong teams and the final result and margin of victory would be a surprise.
Gracenote’s prediction for the World Cup
The ratings within the soccer team rankings can be used to estimate the percentage chance that each World Cup match will result in a win, draw or loss for each of the teams. These percentages are then fed into a World Cup simulation run a million times to produce estimates of how likely each team will reach a given stage of the competition.
During the 2022 World Championship, the simulation will be run after each matchday’s results are obtained, to produce an up-to-date forecast taking into account the latest information. New predictions will be updated daily in the Nielsen World Cup Data Hub: