France, Brazil, Spain: who are the favorites for the 2022 World Cup?

Everyone has an opinion on the matter. In Qatar, 32 teams from all over the world dream of the coronation. If the games are far from over, one thing is certain: the analysis of statistics has never been so trendy for a World Cup.

France among the favorites

The company Opta, specialized in this field, is formal: France would have a 17.93% chance of retaining its title, four years after its victory in Russia. The tricolor team is among the favorites because of its prolific attack, even without the great last minute absenteethe Golden Ball, Karim Benzema. Behind, Brazil, five times world champion, ranks second with 15.73% chance of victory, followed by Spain (11.53%).

If the statistics are enough to make some optimists, they can make others bitter. According to Opta, three teams have no chance of being crowned world champions: Cameroon, Saudi Arabia and Costa Rica. With the top African country, Senegal, ranking 22nd, it would be surprising to see a team from the continent win for the first time in history.

For its part, the British newspaper The Telegraph has established a panel of predictions from bookmakers and other online betting sites. Brazil is the favorite to win the Cup, with England as finalist, already unfortunate runner-up at the previous Euro.

How do you decide who is favourite?

How, exactly, are these probabilities assessed? “When we talk to club performance managers, we understand that we are moving more and more towards football characterized by high intensity, with very high pressing. From there, we can assume that the selections with players accustomed to this rhythm will be able to act as favorites ”, explains Florent Toniutti, editorial manager of the analysis site Coparena.

As for the choice of the bookmakers to put Brazil as favourites, it is, according to him, above all the fact that in each position, the reservoir of Brazilian players seems to be the most solid. “Unlike Brazil, the France team still has a midfield to rethink, with all the injured players”, compare the expert.

Beyond numbers, the beauty of sport

However, Florent Toniutti recognizes that these statistics which have invaded football “can never reflect a strict reality”. Moreover, if these forecasts can be relevant for the clubs, which play every week and thus provide regular data, it applies less well to the national selections which meet only episodically.

“Not all teams will have enough time to prepare. Which suggests that surprises are possible and that favorites could fall earlier than expected. anticipates Florent Toniutti. Bookmakers and online betting sites, he adds, “have always been able to name favorites, never really winners. And fortunately, otherwise, what’s the point of fighting on the ground? “.

France, Brazil, Spain: who are the favorites for the 2022 World Cup?