Brazil or Argentina? This predicts Oxford about the Qatar 2022 champion

Bloomberg Línea — The 2022 FIFA World Cup began and the main candidates are already emerging to lift the trophy of one of the most important sports tournaments in history. Brazil and Argentina are the countries with the best chance of lifting the trophy in December.

This is shown by the results of a mathematical model presented by the Institute of Mathematics at the University of Oxford and the institute’s researcher, Joshua Bull. This model was created by analyzing the qualification data of each team from the statistics of the page eloratings.net, “focusing on all international matches of the first team (of each country) since 2018″ till the date.

According to this model, Brazil would be world champion in Qatar 2022, closely followed by the Argentina team, with these probability results:

  1. Brazil: 14.72%
  2. Argentina: 14.36%
  3. Netherlands: 7.84%
  4. Spain: 7.03%
  5. France: 6.37%
  6. Belgium: 6.31%
  7. Portugal: 5.60%
  8. Denmark: 4.94%
  9. Germany: 3.84%
  10. Uruguay: 3.55%

Bull was the winner of a Fantasy Football competition involving more than eight million people in 2020. There he created the observation model in which he detailed that the difference in the number of goals two teams are expected to score is related to the difference in their ratings.

“If I look at how different the ratings of two teams are, I should be able to predict what the score line is going to be or what the difference in scoring should be, which is good enough to tell me who is likely to win.” he noted in a video broadcast by Oxford.

Thus, based on the expected goals (xG) statistics, Bull took the difference and converted it into two different Poisson distributions, thus predicting the number of goals in each game for each team. From there, a real match is simulated based on the two xGs, so “to predict the winner, all we have to do is repeat this many times in each match in the tournament and see who comes out victorious”, said. Each match in the tournament was replayed 100,000 times to find Brazil the winner.

But the Oxford study is not the only one that places Brazil as world champion, as a prediction model from the Alan Turing Institute in London it also gave the South American team a 1 in 4 (25%) chance of winning the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

Oxford Student’s prediction for the group stage

An article published by Dani Kovacs on the official Oxford Student website makes this distribution of the position in which each team would finish in the group stage of the Qatar 2022 World Cup:

– Group A: 1. Netherlands 2. Senegal 3. Qatar 4. Ecuador

– B Group: 1. England 2. USA 3. Wales 4. Iran

– Group C: 1. Argentina 2. Poland 3. Mexico 4. Saudi Arabia

– Group D: 1. Denmark 2. Australia 3. France 4. Tunisia

– Group E: 1. Germany 2. Spain 3. Japan 4. Costa Rica

– Group F: 1. Belgium 2. Croatia 3. Canada 4. Morocco

– Group G: 1. Brazil 2. Switzerland 3. Serbia 4. Cameroon

– Group H: 1. Portugal 2. Uruguay 3. Ghana 4. South Korea

Brazil or Argentina? This predicts Oxford about the Qatar 2022 champion