Brazil. Bolsonaro is preparing for a “third round” – Against

Bolsonaro summoned the heads of the various army corps on October 26

By Valerio Arcary

The episode of Wednesday, October 26, 2022 [voir le paragraphe ci-dessous] was extremely serious. Bolsonaro wanted to create a scandal in this way by advocating the postponement of the elections. He began to fabricate pretexts to contest the result with a golpist tone, foreseeing the prospect of a Lula victory. He is repositioning himself for a “third round” over the next two months during which he will still reside at the Planalto Palace, that is, for the phase that opens after Sunday, October 30, once the defeat is confirmed. .

Jair Bolsonaro is worried about his fate because he knows that, out of power, he will be investigated and could be convicted and imprisoned.

The bogus statement relating to an alleged fraud concerning radio insertions against Bolsonaro was an attempt to prepare the ground for a new golpist campaign. Bolsonaro is in no position to articulate a putsch: he retains enormous political influence over a large sector of the bourgeoisie, but the ruling class is divided and internationally such a move would be untenable. The plan lay in a frontal attack on Alexandre de Moraes [1], president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), for act of partiality in connection with radio insertions. This “operation” was to lead to a request to postpone the elections in order to forge a narrative for its social base. He was forced, to his chagrin, to back down in his golpist provocation. The Centrao [le conglomérat des partis vivant des liens financiers avec les institutions] has its own interests.

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Three days before the elections Bolsonaro summons army, navy and air force commanders [2] and consulted with leaders of the coalition that supports his government. The aim was to seek support for the accusation of alignment of the TSE (Supreme Electoral Tribunal) with the PT. The truth is that Alexandre de Moraes has become an international reference for the importance of his role in the fight against fake news [la désinformation a pris un essor au-delà de toutes les spéculations].

Centrão argued that this tactic would be tantamount to acknowledging defeat, arguing that there would still be a possibility of winning. Playing the postponement card would jeopardize the electoral advantages of Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas [ministre de l’Information et candidat bien placé pour le poste de gouverneur de l’Etat de São Paulo] and Onyx Lorenzoni [candidat en bonne position pour gagner le poste de gouverneur de Rio Grande do Sul].

The tactical turn to radicalization has also sought to shift the agenda of debate in favor of discussing alleged fraud. Until Wednesday 26, Bolsonaro was on the defensive. The campaign revolved – after Bolsonaro came out on his encounter with young prostitutes in 2021 – around Jefferson’s “bang-bang” [3] and the freezing of the minimum wage [le gouvernement vient de décider le déconnecter l’évolution du salaire minimum de celle de l’inflation – réd.].

As expected, Bolsonaro will not accept the result from the polls. From Sunday evening, October 30, Bolsonarism risks triggering a golpist political campaign questioning the results. The credibility of this campaign will depend on several factors, for the moment unpredictable. This will depend on the difference in votes, the degree of demoralization of its social base, its ability to arouse mass mobilizations. They are already testing it by calling, on October 29, for mobilizations for clean elections. They want to spread fear. The biggest danger threatening Lula’s victory is an increase in abstention due to fear.

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Although the polls confirm that Lula’s small advantage is maintained, the actual result remains undetermined. Uncertainty remains. Bolsonaro’s campaign mistakes have fueled a sense of laxity within the left. The danger is to confine oneself to a comfort zone. The latest DataFolha poll, published Thursday, October 27, confirms that the presidential election is stable in terms of valid votes [donc sans les votes blancs et nuls]: with 53% for Lula and 47% for Bolsonaro, and a margin of error of two points. So there is a small gap in favor of Lula. Lula’s advantage among the poor increased; and that of Bolsonaro among those who earn more than ten minimum wages [3000 euros].

Lula progressed among evangelicals, from 28% to 32%. This segment of the electorate is estimated at 27% of voters. The poll in São Paulo favors Bolsonaro, with a 6% lead. He maintains a 10% advantage in Rio de Janeiro. The preference for Lula in Minas Gerais state was 48% to 43%, meaning Bolsonaro failed to extend his lead in the southeast. The Northeast makes up for this difference with a huge difference. In the first round, there was an advantage of 16 million votes.

In the São Paulo metropolitan area, Lula’s advantage is 49% to 41% and free transport could reduce abstention [les couches paupérisées s’abstiennent car le coût du transport est élevé pour elles]. In São Paulo, 9% could change their vote, against 6% in Minas Gerais and 7% in Rio de Janeiro, while among the youngest, 15% has been reached. A third of the voters of Simone Tebet (PMDB) and Ciro Gomes (PDT) could still change their vote. Three days separate us from the elections and we will have last minute decisions, as well as the impact of the debate organized by the chain Globe October 28 in the evening [4].

In the streets, in the streets… The fight isn’t over until it’s over. It is time to mobilize the street campaign as much as possible. Every effort makes the difference. The scale of the campaign encourages activism. Saturday, October 29, closing marches of the campaign will take place. The fight against abstention will be decisive. An important guideline for Sunday’s count will be to gather activism in safe places. No one should walk the streets alone, and even less so in the bars and other places frequented by Bolsonarists. Once Lula’s victory is secured, the immediate orientation should be to take to the streets in droves to celebrate. The mass celebration serves to demonstrate strength, to increase the morale of the social base of the left, to stifle and discourage Bolsonarism. (Article received October 28; published on Esquerda online October 28; translation by the editorial staff of Against)

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Ratings

[1] The response was made on October 25, 2022, by Judge Alexandre de Moraes, President of the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE). The latter clearly stated that the “Bolsonaro campaign” had launched an accusation “without any documented evidence”. He ordered that “evidence or serious documents” be presented within 24 hours. Alexandre de Moraes had stood against Bolsonaro for months over his questioning of the security and reliability of the electronic voting system. (Ed. Against)

[2] According to Folha de Sao Paulo October 26 evening: “President Jair Bolsonaro summoned the three commanders of the armed forces for a meeting on Wednesday evening (October 26), during which the report of his electoral campaign on an alleged boycott of radio advertising was discussed and TV of the Chief Executive (Bolsonaro).

After the meeting, the president made a statement to the press in which he announced that he would appeal “until the final consequences” of the decision of judge Alexandre de Moraes to dismiss the procedure concerning the alleged deletion of radio insertions in the North and Northeast. Bolsonaro said Moraes had “nipped in the bud” his whistleblowing.

The three military commanders were present: General Marco Antônio Freire Gomes (Army), Air Lieutenant Brigadier Carlos Baptista Júnior (Air Force) and Admiral Almir Garnier Santos (Navy). Defense Minister General Paulo Sérgio Nogueira was also present. Ministers of State were also present, such as Anderson Torres (Justice), Célio Faria (Secretariat of Government) and Carlos França (Foreign Affairs).

At the time Bolsonaro made this statement, again making accusations without evidence, were alongside the President only Torres and the head of the GSI (Institutional Security Cabinet), Augusto Heleno. The events of Wednesday night (October 26) sparked rumors of more drastic action by the president, who even completely changed his route back to Brasilia. Bolsonaro was in Minas Gerais and had to spend the night directly in Rio de Janeiro, but he decided to return to the federal capital “given the gravity of the facts”. (Ed. Against)

[3] MP Roberto Jefferson, an ally of Bolsonaro – although Bolsonaro initially denied it and then had to face the facts following the publication of photos showing him with Jefferson – resisted arrest by throwing a grenade and shooting on police officers who came to arrest him, in the name of “freedom, democracy and the family”. He injured two. The Federal Supreme Court (STF) had ordered Roberto Jefferson returned to custody after he violated the terms of his house arrest by posting online attacks on Supreme Court Justice Carmen Lucia, calling her a “witch.” » and « prostitute ». Bolsonaro condemned the statements made by Roberto Jefferson against the Supreme Court judge. Bolsonaro, however, condemned the investigations carried out by the STF against Roberto Jefferson. According to him, they were carried out “without any constitutional basis”. (Ed. Against)

[4] During the televised debate on the Globo channel on Friday October 28: “Former President Lula and President Jair Bolsonaro exchanged provocations, accusations and tried to exploit the weaknesses of their rival. In a scenario of stable competition, according to the polls, the two presidential candidates targeted a small slice of still undecided voters [2% selon les sondages] or unconvinced – which can be decisive in determining the winner of the Sunday 30 ballot”, according to the Folha de S. Paulo of October 29. According to this daily: “In the debate, without depth, the discussions between Lula and Bolsonaro were lost in the midst of attacks and mutual disputes. The farrier claimed 19 rights of reply and obtained two [de la part des journalistes arbitres]while President Bolsonaro asked for five and got none.”

During the debate, Lula was accompanied by allies “such as Senator Simone Tebet (MDB) and Federal Deputy-elect Marina Silva [Rede-SP – ex-ministre de l’Environnement du gouvernement Lula et membre de l’Eglise pentecôtise l’Assemblée de Dieu]as well as the vice-presidential candidate, Geraldo Alckmin [membre du PSB après avoir été membre du PSDB et gouverneur de l’Etat de São Paulo]. His wife, the sociologist Rosângela da Silva, alias Janja, was also part of the entourage. Bolsonaro was accompanied by former judge Sergio Moro [União Brasil], elected senator from Paraná and who had also accompanied the president during the debate on the 16th, thus sealing the rapprochement between the two. Moro convicted Lula in the Lava Jato case, which barred him from running in 2018, when Bolsonaro was elected. In addition to the former judge, communications minister Fábio Faria and former secretary Fabio Wajngarten, one of the campaign’s communications coordinators, were part of the circle. (Folha de S. Paulo, October 29) (Ed. Against)

Brazil. Bolsonaro is preparing for a “third round” – Against